You’ve probably noticed that your favourite snack seems to weigh a little less, or that a pack of toilet paper holds fewer sheets — yet the sticker price hasn’t changed. This phenomenon is known as shrinkflation: when a company keeps the price the same (or nearly so) but reduces the size or quantity of the product. In this article we’ll explore what is shrinkflation, why it happens, how to spot it through common shrinkflation examples, and what it means for your wallet and consumer behaviour.
What is shrinkflation?
Shrinkflation occurs when manufacturers respond to rising production costs — whether they stem from increased prices for raw material, energy, labour or other inputs — by reducing product sizes instead of simply increasing the retail price. In this way, the price stays largely unchanged on the shelf, but the price per unit (for example price per gram or per sheet) goes up. The term is often credited to the British economist Pippa Malmgren, who noted this practice in the 2000s.
From a consumer perspective, the package may look the same, but some of the content is missing. Because most shoppers focus on the price increase at first glance, they might overlook a subtle shrinkage in size. Thus, companies manage to maintain profit margins or at least mitigate losses without triggering the backlash a transparent price hike might cause.
Why does shrinkflation happen?
One of the primary drivers is the rising production costs faced by manufacturers. When costs for raw material — say paper pulp for household paper products like toilet paper or paper towels — go up, companies must either raise prices or reduce size. In a competitive environment, raising prices can drive away price-sensitive consumers, reducing sales volume. So instead, many choose to shrink the quantity or size and keep the visible price the same.
Another factor is consumer perception: many shoppers are sensitive to price hikes but less aware of subtle changes in quantity. If the package says “1.75 L” instead of “2 L” for the same price, that difference might slip past notice. Thus, the price per unit increases, but the price remained nominally fixed.
For products like toilet paper or paper towels — household staples — the temptation to use shrinkflation is strong: the product is relatively undifferentiated, and consumers tend to buy by habit. Reducing the number of sheets or the size of the roll is one way manufacturers can manage rising costs while avoiding a visible price hike.
Shrinkflation examples to watch
Here are some concrete shrinkflation examples that illustrate how the phenomenon plays out in everyday goods:
- A study found that in the US a “family-sized” cereal box was reduced from 19.3 ounces to 18.1 ounces while the price remained at $2.99 — effectively raising the price per ounce.
- In 2022, a major brand of toilet paper reduced the number of double-ply sheets per roll in an 18-count mega-package from 264 sheets to 244 sheets, while keeping the same package price — so the size of the product went down, and price per sheet went up.
- Products like chocolate bars or crisps: for example, one brand reduced a 200 g chocolate bar to 170 g while keeping the price constant, thereby increasing the effective cost per gram.
These examples demonstrate how shrinkflation is not limited to food but extends to household paper products, personal items, and many packaged goods. Because the price stayed the same, many consumers don’t immediately notice — until they check the size or count.
How to detect shrinkflation in your shopping
Detecting shrinkflation requires a shift in how you shop. Here are some methods:
- Check the size or quantity of the product (grams, litres, number of sheets, etc.) from previous purchases. If older packaging had a larger size for the same price, this could signal shrinkflation.
- Pay attention to the price per unit figure (price per kilogram, per litre, per sheet). If the price per unit rises while the retail price remains stable, that implies you are getting less for your money. Analysts call this the “hidden markup”.
- Notice whether consumer behaviour changes: if you find you’re running out of a product faster than before, that could be because size was reduced.
- Be aware of subtle packaging changes: sometimes brands will change the shape or design so it looks similar, but the actual quantity is lower — this is part of the shrinkflation strategy.
By shifting your focus from just “price tag” to “what I get for that price”, you can better guard your budget.
The impact on consumers and the broader market
Shrinkflation affects consumers in several ways. At a micro level, it means you are paying more per unit of product while thinking the price has “stayed the same”. Over time, this can erode household budgets, especially for frequently purchased staples like toilet paper and paper towels.
From a behavioural standpoint, consumer perception plays a big role: many shoppers react strongly when the price increases, but less so when the size is reduced, even if the effective cost has gone up. Manufacturers exploit this difference in reaction.
In terms of the broader market, shrinkflation can mask inflation in official statistics. For example, if product sizes shrink but the price stays the same, the basket of goods used by agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not fully capture the change in value for consumers.
Meanwhile, some consumers may respond by switching to cheaper brands, buying in bulk, or simply reducing consumption — all of which influences sales volume and market dynamics.
Why companies choose shrinkflation over price hikes
There are several reasons manufacturers prefer reducing product sizes rather than raising prices:
- Raising the retail price is highly visible and can trigger consumer backlash or switch to competitors.
- By keeping the price stays the same on the shelf, brands avoid negative signals and maintain brand loyalty.
- Reducing size or changing the packaging subtly allows manufacturers to respond to raw material or energy cost increases without explicitly passing them on in the form of a visible price hike.
- It helps maintain sales volume — if consumers see the same price, they are more likely to buy, even if the value per unit is lower.
In a sense, shrinkflation is a strategic reaction to inflationary pressure: rather than raising the sticker price, companies raise the effective price via smaller product size or fewer units.
What this means for household budgets
For households, especially those managing tight budgets, shrinkflation means the purchasing power of each euro or dollar spent is shrinking. The phenomenon is especially significant for essential categories such as household paper products, where the products are often commoditised and price-sensitive.
If you routinely buy a certain brand of toilet paper or paper towels, and you notice you’re going through one roll or one pack faster than before for the same price, this might be shrinkflation at work. Over time, this means the “hidden” cost is adding up — your budget for staples gradually increases even if the shelf price seems unchanged.
By recognising the practice of shrinkflation, households can take action: switch brands, adjust purchase frequency, pay more attention to packaging size and unit price, or even simply buy fewer products or lower-cost alternatives. Awareness of the practice allows better budgeting and smarter consumer behaviour.
The future of shrinkflation
As inflationary pressures continue in global supply chains — driven by higher commodity costs, labour shortages, energy costs and logistics challenges — the incentive for manufacturers to adopt shrinkflation remains strong. Economists argue that unless sales volume sharply declines, companies will find size reductions an easier path than explicit price hikes.
However, consumer awareness is growing. With more media coverage and consumer advocacy, shoppers are more likely to spot shrinkflation examples, compare unit prices, and switch behaviour. Some regulatory bodies are even discussing whether disclaimers about reduced size should be mandated.
From a macro-perspective, the interplay between inflation, consumer behaviour and corporate margin pressure is highlighting shrinkflation as a key piece of how consumers are quietly paying more for less. For budget-conscious households, the key takeaway is that the battle for purchasing power is not just about the sticker price — it’s about how much you get for that price.
This post is also available in: Italiano (Italian)
