{"id":136304,"date":"2026-03-04T15:25:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T14:25:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.donatopaolino.it\/?p=136304"},"modified":"2026-03-04T15:27:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T14:27:14","slug":"iran-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.donatopaolino.it\/en\/iran-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran conflict and energy markets: are oil and gas really at risk?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A short conflict could trigger price spikes but not a structural shock for the Italian economy<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Whenever tensions rise in the Middle East, global attention immediately turns to energy markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, through which roughly 20-21% of global oil supply<\/strong> flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Unimpresa Research Center<\/strong>, however, a conflict lasting three to four weeks<\/strong> would likely cause only a temporary shock rather than a structural energy crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets tend to react immediately to geopolitical risk, often before physical flows are actually disrupted. The first effect is typically financial: increased insurance costs, speculative trading in futures markets and higher risk premiums<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If maritime routes remain operational and no prolonged blockade occurs, price spikes tend to fade relatively quickly<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices: possible spike to $110<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Unimpresa projections suggest a temporary but significant increase in oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Starting from a pre-crisis Brent price around $75 per barrel<\/strong>, a short conflict could push prices toward $90-$110<\/strong>, representing a 20-45% increase<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the key metric for the economy is the average price over time<\/strong>, not the peak. Under a scenario of rapid stabilization, the quarterly average would likely remain around $85-$95 per barrel<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This dynamic reflects what economists call financial overshooting<\/strong>: markets initially overreact to risk before stabilizing once supply disruptions fail to materialize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European gas: volatility without supply shortages<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A similar pattern is expected in the European gas market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With TTF prices around \u20ac35 per megawatt hour<\/strong>, a geopolitical shock could temporarily push prices to \u20ac50-\u20ac65<\/strong>, an increase of 40-80%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, seasonal averages would likely remain lower, between \u20ac45 and \u20ac55<\/strong>, provided there are no physical disruptions to Qatari LNG shipments or North African gas flows<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italy consumes about 70 billion cubic meters of gas annually<\/strong>, but its supply mix is now more diversified than during the 2022 energy crisis<\/strong>, thanks to additional LNG infrastructure and alternative suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation and GDP impact: relatively limited<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a macroeconomic perspective, the impact of a short-lived shock would be modest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 30% increase in oil prices for one month<\/strong> would raise Italian inflation by roughly 0.2\u20130.4 percentage points<\/strong>, compared with a baseline around 2.1%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic growth would also remain resilient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italy\u2019s 2026 GDP growth<\/strong>, currently projected at about 1.1%<\/strong>, might decline by at most 0.2 percentage points<\/strong>, still far from recession territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy trade deficit<\/strong>, typically around \u20ac35 billion<\/strong>, might temporarily rise to \u20ac45-\u20ac50 billion<\/strong> if high prices persisted for a full quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italian businesses: higher costs but manageable<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For companies, particularly energy-intensive sectors, the main effect would be higher energy price volatility<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this would not necessarily translate into a systemic profitability crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many firms today rely on long-term supply contracts or indexed pricing mechanisms<\/strong>, which soften the immediate impact of spot market fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Severe scenarios involving employment losses or industrial competitiveness would require a prolonged conflict or regional escalation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Duration is the key factor<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, the difference between a temporary shock and a structural crisis lies in how long the conflict lasts<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A short conflict would mainly produce financial price spikes<\/strong>, followed by gradual stabilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Giuseppe Spadafora<\/strong>, Vice President of Unimpresa, notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIf the conflict lasts only a few weeks, we are facing volatility rather than a structural shock. Oil and gas prices may spike, but the yearly impact would remain manageable.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Still, he warns that vigilance is necessary:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cBusinesses, especially energy-intensive industries and SMEs, need stability and adequate hedging tools. Continuous monitoring and timely interventions are essential.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Prudence, in other words, remains the best safeguard for competitiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
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A short conflict could trigger price spikes but not a structural shock for the Italian economy The strategic role of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":136305,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rs_blank_template":"","rs_page_bg_color":"","slide_template_v7":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[369],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nIran conflict and energy markets: are oil and gas really at risk? - Donato Paolino Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Iran conflict may push oil and gas prices up, but Unimpresa analysis suggests the impact would remain manageable if the crisis is short.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.donatopaolino.it\/en\/iran-conflict\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran conflict and energy markets: are oil and gas really at risk? 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