Energy pressure rises, inflation stays under watch, and Italy may still absorb the shock in the short term
A crisis getting worse with no quick off-ramp in sight
The conflict in the Gulf is entering a harsher phase and, at least for now, there are no credible signs of short-term de-escalation. The strategic heart of the crisis remains the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil and LNGflows, now at the center of a paralysis that is fueling higher energy prices and a wider geopolitical risk premium.
According to the Centro studi di Unimpresa, the threat is no longer just hypothetical. The escalation of military operations and Iran’s declared use of the energy lever are turning geopolitical tension into a real constraint on global supply. Even so, that does not automatically mean that the EU and Italy are already facing a deep and lasting macroeconomic shock.
The real threat runs through energy prices and inflation
In the short term, the most sensitive transmission channel is price pressure. If energy traffic through the Gulf remains blocked or severely disrupted, the first impact falls on crude oil, natural gas and energy costs. That is where Europe’s vulnerability is concentrated, more than in any immediate collapse in growth.
The extraordinary release of more than 400 million barrels from international strategic reserves, announced by the IEA, is an important but temporary buffer. It can calm the market, but it cannot eliminate the risk. At the same time, several analyses suggest that Europe remains particularly exposed on the LNG side, and for Italy the link to Qatari supplies makes the issue especially delicate in price terms.
Why the impact on Europe and Italy still looks limited for now
The core point in the Unimpresa report is that, at this stage, there is still no sign of deterioration severe enough to undermine the broader macroeconomic backdrop. If the energy price spike remains temporary, the impact on euro area inflation could stay relatively contained, without immediately changing the underlying course of monetary policy.
The wider European context points in the same cautious direction. Reuters reports that markets are reassessing inflation risks tied to oil, but there is still no consensus around an immediate ECB shift. The key question is whether this is a temporary flare-up or the beginning of a more persistent shock.
As for Italy, a resilient labour market and the lack of dramatic short-term data deterioration suggest that the economy still has room to absorb the blow. The real danger would emerge only if the crisis evolved from an intense but temporary energy strain into a durable shock hitting prices, confidence, supply chains and procurement.
Unimpresa’s message: be cautious, not alarmist
As Giuseppe Spadafora, vice president of Unimpresa, points out, the worsening Middle East crisis makes a rapid easing unlikely, but it does not yet justify talking about an economic collapse for Europe or Italy. The real issue is duration: the longer the conflict lasts, the greater the risk that a manageable energy emergency becomes a structural economic problem.
This is a call for caution, not panic. The situation is serious, and markets are already pricing it in, but we are not yet facing an event that forces an immediate rewrite of Europe’s economic outlook.
What may change in the coming weeks
Much will depend on three factors: how long the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts, whether the international community can secure even a partial reopening of maritime transit, and whether permanent damage to regional energy infrastructure is avoided.
As long as those elements remain under control, the geopolitical premium embedded in energy prices could also reverse quickly if hostilities stop. But if the conflict drags on beyond the next few weeks, the scenario would change sharply: not just higher prices, but broader effects on growth, investment and confidence.
This post is also available in: Italiano (Italian)